NEWS TRANSCRIPT from the United States Department of Defense

 

DoD News Briefing

 

Nunn-McCurdy

certification.

 

Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Logistics, and

Technology Edward C. "Pete" Aldridge

Thursday, May 2, 2002 3 p.m. EDT

 

(Nunn-McCurdy explanation and certification documents are

available at

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/May2002/d20020502nmc.pdf

)

 

ALDRIDGE:  So what do you want to talk about?

 

Q:  First of all --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Nunn-McCurdy.

 

Q:  The Crusader --

 

ALDRIDGE:  I'll talk about the Crusader in just a

second.  A couple of things I'll go over today.  And then I'll

open it up for questions.

 

The first thing I'd like to go over is the Nunn-McCurdy

certification.  As you know, we have six programs that we have

to take a look at.  And the certification process has to occur

by tomorrow. And I'll talk a little bit about that, because I've

already done it. The other is the V-22 return to flight, which

we've had a meeting on recently.  I'd like to talk -- a couple

of things about the missile defense program, and then the Navy

DDX.  And then I'm sure you'll have some questions on Crusader.

 

As you know, when we have a Nunn-McCurdy breach of 15

percent, we have to notify Congress.  When we have a

Nunn-McCurdy breach of 25 percent, we have to notify Congress,

and then the secretary of Defense has to certify to four

criteria for the program to continue.  The secretary has

delegated that certification process to me.  And I -- as the

undersecretary for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics.

 

The four criteria we have to certify to is, one: is the

program essential for national security?  The second criteria:

is there a -- is the management, or is the -- is there an

alternative, equally capable alternative of lesser cost

available?  The third criteria: is cost under control?  And the

fourth criteria: are there management in place to keep it under

control?  If the -- you have to certify that for the program to

continue.  If you cannot certify to those four criteria on a

specific date, then the fund obligation stops, which is what

happened on Navy Area [sea-based missile system].

 

In accordance with this law, based upon the schedule

that's been given for these six programs, I must sign that

certification letter to Congress by May the 3rd.  There's been a

huge amount of work done by the program offices, by the military

departments and the OSD staff since the congressional

notification had occurred.  And because of all this work of

getting the programs back on track I am able to certify that

each of the six programs now do satisfy the four criteria for

continuation.  And I signed the certification letter to this

effect to Congress today.

 

Let me just go through, very briefly, some of the

programs that -- and the reason that I felt confident of

certification.

 

One was the H-1 helicopter.  We're re-manufacturing 280

H-1s for the AH-1 Cobra and for the UH-1 Huey, replacements.

Based upon my review of the management team, we're now using the

OSD [Office of the Secretary of Defense] cost estimates. In

fact, the Navy and OSD cost estimates were consistent with each

other.  And if you look at the alternatives, there is a -- the

alternatives are much more extensive than continuing with the

current re-manufacturing effort.

 

The CH-47 helicopter.  We're going to re-manufacture 317

CH-47s for the heavy lift helicopter replacement.  Every

alternative was two to three times more expensive.  The CAIG

estimates -- Cost Analysis Improvement Group's estimates are now

being used.  And looking at the management team we have in place

at Boeing, it looked like it had confidence that they could pull

off the job.

 

The LPD-17 amphibious transport dock ship, there are

four ships under contract leading to a 12-ship buy.  We have now

-- 95 percent of the design has been complete.  Most of the

problems are behind us. They are also using the CAIG cost

estimate.  So it looks like we've got costs under control as

best we can determine.

 

The chemical demilitarization program.  This is the

destruction of chemical weapons per our treaty.  There is really

no alternative to this approach, various technologies on how to

do that, which we are looking at.  And even though the program

is in place, we are looking at an alternative to accelerate the

process to see if we can get rid of some of the stuff quicker.

We are using the cost -- the CAIG cost estimates for cost and

schedule.

 

The multiple-launch rocket system upgrades -- this

improves the launcher, develops a GPS-guided multiple-launch

rocket system and extends the range.  This is a joint program

between the Germany, Italy, France and the UK.  We have new cost

estimates and a reasonable production profile, and the

contractor is now achieving good cost performance.

 

The last of the six is the space-based infrared radar --

infrared system [SBIRS High].  This is the high version.  This

is the replacement for the current ballistic missile

early-warning system with the added requirements for technical

intelligence and missile defense.  This is essential for

national security.  The alternatives were much more expensive

given the state of the current program.  We are again using CAIG

cost estimates, and there's a new management structure in

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman that gives me the

confidence that we could pull this off.

 

So those are the six.  They have been certified, and I

think for good reason.  Again, a lot of work went into make

those happen.

 

On April 25th, the secretary of the Navy and the

commandant and I met to review the return to flight status for

the V-22.  The program manager, Dan Schultz, and his team, with

a lot of additional help, have put together a comprehensive

flight test program that will prove -- or not -- the

reliability, safety and operational suitability of the V-22.

And I said before, this will be an event-driven test program,

not a schedule-driven program.  I concurred in the Navy's plan

to reinstate the V-22 flight test program.  And I think the

first flight plan is for May the 9th.

 

I look thoroughly at this program.  Some of the issues

that I had with the hover and high rate of decent performance

are going to incur within the first nine months of the flight

test program, even though it will start off very carefully and

deliberately.

 

Missile defense.  As a result of many of the problems of

SBIRS-Low last year, I asked the Missile Defense Agency to look

into a restructured program.  This has now been completed.  And

General Kadish has briefed a summary of the plan to the Hill

several weeks ago.

 

Generally -- and let me summarize it -- we're going to

form a joint contractor team of TRW and Specter Mastro, the

former competitors.  TRW will act as the prime for the

spacecraft design and development, and Specter Mastro has agreed

to this arrangement.

 

We'll compete the payload between Northrop Grumman and

Raytheon. We're going to implement spiral development, evolving

the spacecraft capability with time.  And by doing this,

starting off with a little slower pace, we can -- I believe we

can plan for the first increment to be launched in the 2006 to

2007 timeframe.  We will ask Congress, through reprogramming,

for an additional $13.4 million in FY '02.  As you recall, in

the appropriations process there was $250 million left in the

program.  We're finding that that's just a little bit short for

what a restructured program would be, and we'll ask Congress for

the reprogram.  It will come from a missile defense program

element itself.  And to avoid a lot of confusion between

SBIRS-Low and SBIRS-High, I'm going to ask General Kadish to

give me another name for SBIRS-Low.  That will probably save a

lot of time and effort.

 

As you may recall also, we terminated the Navy Area

Terminal Defense System last December.  I asked the Missile

Defense Agency to develop a replacement program to account for

the new missile defense technologies.  That work is also

completed.  I've been briefed on it. We have -- based on the

briefing and the information I got from General Kadish, we have

decided not to start a new Navy Terminal Defense System.  We

found that through improvements in the Navy Mid-course System,

the so-called Upper Tier, which is performing quite well, and

some improvements in the existing Block 4 Standard Missile, we

can achieve much of the capabilities lost as a result of the

removal of Navy Area.  And certainly we do not need anymore

pressure on our budget resulting from a new start.  So we're not

going to pursue that plan.

 

On Monday, the Assistant Secretary of the Navy, John

Young, announced the source selection for the Navy's new DDX.

I'd like to congratulate the Navy and the Gold Team of Northrop

Grumman and Raytheon for an excellent design and a winning

proposal.  The award of the DDX design agent contract marks an

excellent beginning for a new family of surface combatants, for

littoral operations, land attack and air and missile defense

capabilities.  This program is evolutionary in its final

development approach; will be a model for Navy acquisition in

the years to come.  It will bring transformational capability to

the fleet, as well as the acquisition process.  This is a great

new program for the Navy, and I wish them well.

 

Questions?

 

Q:  Mr. Secretary, as the V-22 starts flight testing

again, what standard are you going to use for deciding if you

should cancel the program?  If there's a crash, is that program

dead?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Not necessarily.  It could be pilot error,

mistakes.  We'd have to go into it and determine.  As you know,

there are really just three criteria that we're looking for the

V-22: reliability, safety, and operational suitability.

Operational suitability, of course, is a wide range of things:

Will it operate well off of a ship -- deck of a ship?  Does it

have any landing-zone considerations, like dust and debris?  Can

it be dangerous to fly in that kind of environment?  Is the

performance what we expect it to be?  As has been demonstrated,

there are some problems in going through.

 

If you read the blue-ribbon report and the independent

NASA [National Aeronautics and Space Administration] study,

which I have done thoroughly, you'll find there's some

recommendations -- many recommendations in there to take a look

at some things like, do you need more control authority?  Some

of the hover performance that was predicted, versus what was

actually achieved was different.  I'd kind of like to know why

that occurred. Is something wrong with aerodynamics

determination?  The prop loading is very high on the V-22, which

doesn't give it a lot of maneuverability margin.  We need to

check that out.  We've all talked about the vortex-ring-state

conditions that occur with these rotors -- especially when

they're out on 20-foot Mulman arms.

 

All those things are going to go -- be checked very

thoroughly. The flight-test plan looks very good to me.  I was

worried that they were going to put the hard stuff at the end.

They're not.  They're going to bring it up.  It's going to be

about nine months.  They'll have some of the

high-rate-of-descent activities, as well as some of the hover

performance, which is that uncertainty that I mentioned.  So I

think the program is well laid out.  It's not -- again, it's not

schedule-driven; it's event-driven.  And I think, based upon the

comments of the program manager, which I have very high

confidence in, I think we're going to get a good program.  It's

going to prove itself one way or the other.

 

Q:  But you remain skeptical about the aerodynamics of

tilt-rotor technology, generally?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yes.  I think there's a lot of uncertainties

we don't yet know about.  Yes.  And -- but I'm a lone soul here

-- (laughs) -- in some cases, and the flight-test program is

going to prove or disprove whether or not my concerns are valid.

And the commandant of the Marine Corps now concurs.  He's very

-- he's going to watch that.  And we're still looking at

alternatives, just to make sure.

 

Yeah.

 

Q:  Using as a baseline the transformation and the

availability or lack of availability of dollars, two-part

question:  One, has the Pentagon, yourself included, decided to

cancel the Crusader program? We're not talking about friends on

the Hill and what the Army may be doing, but has DOD made that

decision?  And based -- again, not on the flight-testing of the

V-22, but again on transformation and costs and dollars

available:  What about the program such as the V-22, the F-22,

the Comanche and the Joint Strike Fighter?  Are they in doubt?

Are they firm?  How would categorize it?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, let me stop, back up a little bit.  All

these things have come to the front because we're in the process

of trying to publish a defense planning guidance.  We're trying

to get it out this week.  It probably won't make it this week.

Maybe you can get it out on Monday, but when the secretary goes

through the planning guidance and looking -- we're getting --

preparing for the FY '04 and through '09 budget, he's asked a

lot of questions about things like this. I mean, you look the

budget:  Are all these things affordable? Are they the right

priorities?  We've listed a series of things we want to look at.

And Comanche is one of them, and F-22 is one of them.  And we

ask for making sure that we have an alternative available to the

V-22.  If we have a problem with V-22, we don't want to be

siting around for another two years figuring out what to do if

the V-22 isn't it, because the Marines need the modernized

helicopter.

 

Q:  Joint Strike Fighter?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Joint Strike Fighter is certainly one of

those. You know, the Navy, Marine Corps has done a study.

They've put that in.  We've asked for some -- looking at

alternatives, to what is the right mix of those because we

haven't made up our mind exactly.  All these issues are now put

on the table for study.  And that's what we've done.  We've

asked the Army, we've asked the Air Force, we've asked the navy

to come in with studies at various dates, here are some

alternatives, and we'd like for you to look at this alternative

or that alternative.  In some cases, we just say, "Give us a

plan, we don't have an alternative."  Tankers.  We need to

replace tankers.  The Air Force has been asked: give us a plan

for how we're going to do tankers.  These are the kinds of

things that we're looking at, and they have been put on the

table.  And certainly we've asked the Army to look at an

alternative; if you didn't have Crusader, what would you do, if

that's the case?  It's a plan.  Give us a plan under these

conditions.

 

No decision has been made because we haven't seen the

results of the studies, and they have not been briefed for the

secretary, the deputy secretary.  And certainly they will go

into the budget planning process when we see the studies

relative to the other priorities. So, no, we haven't made any

decisions.

 

Q:  Just a follow-up.  We have been led to believe, I

assume perhaps incorrectly, that at least some of these programs

were locked in concrete and were going forward, particularly the

F-22 for the Air Force, which has stated it must have it.  Of

course, we know the Marines want the V-22; they desperately say

they've got to have something to replace the aging C-46s and

what have you.  But now we see these programs are not locked in

concrete, that there is a new view, perhaps.  Has there been a

substantive change in the way these things are being addressed?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, I don't think you could find any

program locked in concrete.  I would imagine you would go back

and look at the CH-47 and the H-1 and LPD-17, and somebody would

say those were locked in concrete in the past before.  If it's

not performing, it is certainly not locked in concrete, in my

view.  If we find that there are better ways to do something,

I'm prepared to advise the secretary of Defense that there's

better ways to do things and different priorities.  And I think

we have to. I mean, we owe the American taxpayer this, to

provide as much use for the taxpayers' dollars as we can get.

And I don't think there is any program that should be considered

locked in concrete, unless you want to consider the Pentagon.

(Laughter.)  This is probably the only place that's BRAC [Base

Realignment and Closure]- proof at this point.

 

Q:  A last follow-up, if I may.

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yeah.

 

Q:  But the F-22, I mean, are you saying in so many

words it's not performing up to your desirability or others'?

That has been viewed, at least by the Air Force, as an absolute

"must" to replace the F-15.

 

ALDRIDGE:  I think the Air Force view is exactly the

view that they have.  The issue we have here is, are we buying

the right number of aircraft?  Given now the Joint Strike

Fighter is underway, given the fact that we've got, you know,

the F-18, been looking at the Navy's mix, to me everything is on

the table to take a look at the balance, how many we're going to

buy.  Maybe we're not buying enough. We've asked -- in the

study, we're looking at alternatives to include increases in the

F-22 if that's the right -- (audio break).

 

Q:  (In progress following audio break) -- make sure

that I'm not shorthanding your views inaccurately, my reading of

your previous remarks was that it could be fundamentally and

fatally flawed.  That's one question.

 

The second, related question is, are you familiar with

the IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses] report, and what did

you think of it?  It's out.

 

ALDRIDGE:  I was briefed on the IDA report.  Some of the

concerns that they had are some of the ones I had.  Some of the

concerns that were in the blue ribbon panel report, I had.  Some

of the concerns that were in the independent report, I had.

There are I don't know how many hundreds of recommendations from

those studies to go out and look at other things.  They

highlighted this hover performance anomaly; what's the

difference between predicted and achievable?  We have not done a

lot of the test of the V-22 in combat maneuvering, you know,

close to the ground and you're in a dangerous area, you got to

get out -- we haven't done any of that.  We haven't really done

a lot of landing and testing in sand and snow and debris. We

haven't flown the envelope of this aircraft to various points.

We haven't determined where we get into this vortex ring state

problem thoroughly.  I could just go on.  We haven't done a lot

of testing on shipboard capability with other --

 

Q:  What's the Aldridge opinion of the V-22 at this moment, realizing --

 

ALDRIDGE:  If it performs as predicted, reliably, safely

and operationally suitable and all those conditions we've

outlined, then it has a transformational capability on the

Marine Corps.

 

Q:  But didn't you have some doubts previously?  It

seemed to come through that way.  Would "skeptic" be the right

word to --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yes.  I continue to be skeptic until they prove to me those three things.

 

Q:  But you don't think it's fundamentally flawed?

 

ALDRIDGE:  I haven't -- don't see it fundamentally

flawed at this point.  I will keep an open mind because there

are some things that it does in certain performance that tell me

it's close to being marginal, and that is, for example,

maneuverability at low speed.  So I'm just going to -- look, I'm

going to -- I can't sit out here and make a judgment that I

believe this thing is fundamentally flawed.  I think there are

some problems with the V-22, and the best way to find those out

is put it back in the flight test program and wring it out. If

it's successful, I will give it full blessing, it will go,

because it does have good performance, if it does the things we

want it to do. So that's --

 

Q:  Those tests you mentioned, why weren't they done

earlier? I mean, this thing was going along pretty well --

 

ALDRIDGE:  I wasn't here at the time.  I can't tell you.

Although, as you know, there were some -- a lot of concern about

the hiding of some test results within the Marine Corps.

 

Q:  Don't you think this is being pushed through too

quickly without having the adequate tests?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Likely to be.  Likely had been a little more

optimistic about its performance than -- ultimate than it would

have been otherwise.

 

Q:  Mr. Secretary?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yeah, please.

 

Q:  Back to the Crusader for a minute.  Secretary

Rumsfeld said today that it's his intention -- and that's the

word he used, intention -- to cancel the program, although a

final decision hadn't been made.  Now, in your view, is it

appropriate for the Army to continue to solicit support for the

program on the Hill, knowing that the secretary intends to

cancel it?

 

ALDRIDGE:  I did not hear the secretary's press

conference, so I don't know if he -- what he said there.  So I'm

assuming that you're right.

 

I think the Army should really be quite objective in

this process, and we've asked the Army to come in with a plan,

show it to us, that cancels the Crusader and see what it looks

like, and let the secretary make up his mind as to what are the

priorities for this department.  And to be on the Hill lobbying

for a different approach, I think, is probably not appropriate.

 

Yes, sir.

 

Q:  A follow-up?

 

Q:  Did you see the talking points they put out?  The

opening line said "A cancellation would put soldiers at risk."

 

ALDRIDGE:  Let me just not comment on that, okay?

 

Q:  Why?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Because I think it's something that the Army

should comment on, not some -- I didn't write it.  So I don't --

let them comment.

 

Q:  Going back to DPG [Defense Planning Guidance]-- a

follow-up on Bob.  The DPG will have, when it's final, a notice

to the Army to come back in 30 days with a program that

cancelled the Crusader and look at alternate programs like the

Excalibur.  Is that -- is that accurate?

 

ALDRIDGE:  I don't like to comment about what's in

classified documents, okay?  Let me just say it in a very

general sense.  The Army has been tasked to come in with a plan

for -- for a plan that would include the cancellation of

Crusader within 30 days, with a description of what the concept

would look like with a lot of different variables in it.

They've been asked to do that, Secretary White's agreed to do

that, we'll come back, we'll brief the deputy secretary in 30

days, and then we'll make a decision is this the right plan, or

it may not be the right plan.  It may be -- it may have some

warts on it.  It may not be right.  It may be that it's the

wrong way to go.  We're allowing the Army to tell us if that is,

in fact, the case, being as objective as possible, to include

participation by my office and PA&E [Program Analysis &

Evaluation] in this process so we have a basis for an analytical

judgment based upon rational and objective criteria.  Okay?

 

Yeah.  Right here.  Yes, sir.

 

Q:  On SBIRS-High, can you give us some of the details

about the changes made that have gotten it under control?  Does

any of it have to do with losing any capabilities?

 

ALDRIDGE:  No.  We looked very thoroughly at a -- as

part of the criteria I had to look at alternatives to see if

there were any cheaper, better alternatives.  And we did so.  We

found that there were none.  Given where we were in the

SBIRS-High, there were none that would give me the confidence

that I would pick the alternative, versus the plan that had been

put into SBIRS-High.

 

What gave me the confidence was that I think the

contractor realized that the performance and the management

approach that he was taking for SBIRS-High needed some serious

adjustment, and he took those measures to make that happen.

 

The other one is that we've looked at the cost estimates

for the future, and using our independent group, and they came

to a conclusion that the costs obviously were wrong that we were

using.  The Air Force agreed to use the independent cost in

their future, so the issue of cost uncertainty went away to the

best we can.  I mean -- clearly, something could happen tomorrow

afternoon and blow up the thing.  But given our best estimates,

the schedule and the cost estimates that were being used by the

Air Force are what we think OSD and the independent group said.

 

So given the alternative, what we were trying to do --

the Joint Chiefs of Staff -- in fact, General Myers came on very

strongly that this was essential for national security to have

this capability as defined by the baseline SIBRS-High.  So we

left that program, in terms of its requirements, alone.  We

redid the costs, redid the schedule. The new management scheme's

in place, and I think the message to the prime contractors,

which are Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, is that they're

in a spotlight.  And if we find that six months from now, the

program is going south, I have no hesitation to pull the plug.

 

Q:  Can you just give us generally some of the

management differences now versus before?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, the -- some of the cost account -- the

cost -- earned-value management systems have been put in place.

Some more senior leadership have been put in place at Sunnyvale

and within Northrop Grumman.  And -- let's see -- don't recall

all the other deals that -- I think the management attention is

what's been given to the program with Vance Coffman (Lockheed

Martin) and Kent Kresa  {Northrop Grumman) basically signing up

that they will support and defend this program and make it

happen properly.

 

Q:  You mentioned changing the name on SBIRS-Low.  Is

that a big deal?  What kind of problems have you encountered --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Probably just changing the stationery.  (Soft laughter.)  It's got to be --

 

Yes, way in the back.

 

Q:  Sir, could you tell us, in your own words, what the

problems are that you all see with Crusader?  And could you also

through the Nunn-McCurdy list and give us the new cost

estimates, and if you have them, what the changes from the old

set?

 

ALDRIDGE:  They're in a letter that I sent to the

Congress. I probably out to let them see it before I get -- pass

it out. But they all --

 

Q:  (Off mike.)

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yeah, the unit costs increases.  Yeah,

they're all spelled out in the letter to the Congress, to the

various committees on the Hill.  I don't know what the -- maybe

we can give it to you tomorrow, but we do have (inaudible)

numbers.

 

And what was the other question?

 

Q:  Crusader -- your concerns with Crusader?

 

ALDRIDGE:  If you look into the battlefield -- I'm not

going to tell you we're going to -- again, it's not a decision

to kill the program at this point.  It's going to be reviewed.

The concern -- let me just give you kind of a gross concern.

The battlefield of the future is going to be represented by very

precise target location, digital terrain mapping and very

precision weapons delivery.  If you look at what is the best way

in the future to achieve a capability for the Army that's in the

best interest, it is providing the Army with a quicker pace to

achieve the technologies that are associated with this type of

battlefield environment, get precision weapons to the Army

faster; get the Army moving toward more mobility, lethality,

deployability, which is what they're doing on the future combat

systems.

 

If you then say to yourself, "What is the Army doing

relative to moving toward that new battlefield?" there's a $9

billion bill to pay for Crusader.  And if you think about it,

you say, "Well, $9 billion is taking money away from things that

could be used to get the Army toward more precision, more

lethality, more mobility, more deployability."  And so there's a

question raised:  What should be the priority?  Should the

priority for Crusader at $9 billion to go, or using $9 billion

to move the Air Force (sic) -- Air Force! -- (laughter) -- Army

-- mobility, I guess -- (laughter) -- move the Army toward this

new technology at a faster pace.

 

The secretary of Defense has to balance those two

questions. He's asked the Army to provide that balance for him.

"Tell me what we can do."  An example of, should we build the

Excalibur -- which is a long-range, highly precision weapon --

quicker by taking some of the Crusader money to do that?  And

the secretary of Defense has got a legitimate question.

(Laughs.)  And what we have done is say, "This appears to be

attractive.  Let's go take a look at it."  Okay?  "And come back

and tell us what you think."

 

(Cross talk.)

 

Q:  The Army says -- the Army says 11.1 billion.  Is the -- (inaudible.)

 

Q:  Does the Army plan (inaudible) Excalibur -- (inaudible.)

 

ALDRIDGE:  That's the total cost of the program.  We

have about 9 billion to go to completion, okay?

 

Yes?

 

Q:  Yes, I have a question about Navy Area.  In a

similar roundtable here a few months ago, after its

cancellation, you said that you could certify that it was a

valid requirement for national security, but the cost and

management were more problematic.  But now, with it not being

revived -- I mean, Navy Theater Wide can't really do what Navy

Area did.  So are you saying the requirement perhaps isn't as

important as it would seem before or simply that it's not cost-

effective to pursue anything for --

 

ALDRIDGE:  The Navy Area was designed for the

shorter-range missiles -- a terminal defense against a

shorter-range missile.  The Navy Midcourse System is against

longer-range missiles.  The Missile Defense Agency has looked at

these programs and has determined that they can bring the Navy

Midcourse System down to a lower intercept altitude and begin to

fill in the shorter-range missiles.

 

The other look is to take the basic standard -- the

Block 4 missile -- see if we can do something -- for example,

fusing or some other things -- to move its capability up, so

that there may be some options to substitute for a single system

associated with this block and to do it with multiple

capabilities and looking at new kill probabilities.

 

The other issue is whether or not you really believe the

scenario is that valid that we would start a brand-new program,

and that is, we will never be able to put a land-based missile

defense system to protect a base, a port, other than through

sea-based only, and begin looking at all of those and just say

to yourself that it appears to be that would we like to explore

this option of expanding what we've got with a program that

looks pretty good -- expand its envelope to a little -- to

shorter-range missiles, and to see if this is a better solution

than starting a brand-new program that obviously puts a lot of

pressure on the budget.

 

Yeah?

 

Q:  Mr. Secretary, can you clarify something about the

timing of your Nunn-McCurdy certifications?  You said that --

speaking SBIRS-High, that six months from now, if you find the

program's going south, you'll have no hesitancy to pull the

plug.  Does that mean that you do these certifications in the

case of 25 percent use overruns every six months, or what is the

timetable?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, what happens was the -- at any point during

these programs, if the program manager sees -- based upon the

selected acquisition report submission, that these unit costs

are going up by the 15 -- they have to notify or notify the

Congress and let us know that within a certain period of time, I

have to re-certify.  So that's a going process, but I think it's

triggered on the selected acquisition reports that come in.

 

Q:  And so how come it is that this is the first time --

with the Navy Area, that there were any decertifications or that

--

 

ALDRIDGE:  Why was it the first time?

 

Q:  Yeah.

 

ALDRIDGE:  I think this is actually -- we actually found

another possible case.  We're exploring -- where it happened in

1993. But I don't know whether people just rubber-stamped this

stuff.  I wasn't here at the time, so I can't say.  That's not

my method, however.  I will not sign my name at the bottom of

something that I don't believe.

 

Yeah, right here.

 

Q:  Mr. Secretary, you used the term "family of ships" for DDX.

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yes.

 

Q:  In the past, you, and I think Comptroller Zakheim,

have referred to it as an R&D [research and development]

project, and it created heartburn for the Navy, though, which

desperately wants to build the ship.  So are you now looking at

this as the beginning of this family of ships the Navy wants?

 

ALDRIDGE:  I don't find the Navy has any heartburn with

this program.  I think the Navy --

 

Q:  No, I mean they had heartburn over the way it was

being viewed by some of the higher level in the building here

because it was being referred to as an R&D project not a --

 

ALDRIDGE:  They may have -- okay.  It is not -- the

first ship will be an R&D -- built by R&D.  That's somewhat

unusual.  But it is -- in my view, it is a family of ships.  I

absolutely support what the Navy is doing in DDX.  In fact, it

got -- I think the concept got derived sitting in a meeting with

the CNO [Chief of Naval Operations] and the secretary of the

Navy and myself in his dining room, that we thought that there

was -- that DDX -- DD-21 was too narrowly focused for where the

Navy was going in the future and that a much broader range of

capabilities, starting with the technologies that are quite good

with the new radar and the stealth design, and robotics, and gun

systems and propulsion -- all that thing starting with R&D, but

essentially branching out to the cruiser, to littoral ships and

to some type of destroyer.  So I fully support what the Navy is

doing.  Think they've got a great program.

 

Yeah, right here.

 

Q:  Secretary, can you say whether or not the experience

in Afghanistan was a factor in the battlefield of the future

that you describe in weighing --

 

ALDRIDGE:  I think --

 

Q:  -- the Army's look at Crusader?

 

ALDRIDGE:  I'm not sure that would apply to a specific

program.  I think the battle in Afghanistan clearly pointed out

the value of integration of information, technology, the role of

the soldier on the ground.  I mean, lots of lessons learned.

But I think the value was the integration of all this

information and how we could play it together from the point of

view of the overhead space capabilities, to JSTARS [Joint

Surveillance Target Attack Radar System], to gunships, to

Predators, to P-3s -- all those things working together that

were integrated, that was kind of a surprise to us all, how well

that was working.

 

Yeah, right here.

 

Q:  Yes, sir, back to the F-22.  There have been reports

in the media recently that that program is high on your chopping

block, on the Pentagon's chopping block, and also reports about

possible structural problems.  Could you describe that?  Is that

a program that's in trouble?

 

ALDRIDGE:  I think the program is in -- from the point

of view of the technical progress, we are making some progress.

The test plan is going a little slower -- test program is going

a little slower than we would like.  There have been reports of

a structural problem, and we were told about that, I think, back

in December.  It doesn't bother me, because the -- that's the

reason you do tests, is finding problems.  This event -- I know

Tony's sitting there on the edge of his chair to ask another

question about that.

 

But it's a load problem on the fin at a particular

point.  It's a very narrow point in the flight test program.  It

doesn't bother me because there's plenty of mitigation things

that we can work on. That's why you do flight tests.  We'll find

out about it and we'll correct it.

 

The program -- the F-22 program, to me, is not in

trouble in the sense that it's likely to be cancelled any time

soon.  We just started it into low rate initial production.  I

think what we're looking at any alternatives is to put the size

of the program that we're going to deploy eventually rather than

the -- yeah, right here.

 

Q:  A couple months ago you asked a series of studies be

conducted looking at the industrial base in the helicopter

industry. Those have been completed, and I think you were

briefed on that.  What were the conclusions of those studies?

And I think some of the studies looked at how possible

cancellations play out in terms of ramifications on the

industrial base.  Were these factors in your decision to

recertify things like H-1 and the Chinook, and also the V- 22

going forward now?

 

ALDRIDGE:  No.  The studies concluded that we don't have

as much competition in the helicopter industry as we would like,

and that because of that, we are not innovating enough.  And

it's causing me to start thinking out how we can be a little

more competitive in the helicopter about base.  It had a factor

involved in the H-1 program of can we do something to be a

little more competitive and for some time in the future; should

we be looking at new R&D programs for heavy lift?  So we're

beginning to think about what we can do in this industry that is

essentially defined as three, Bell, Boeing and Sikorsky, all

interconnected together in some way, shape or form.  And I don't

like that.

 

Q:  Is it also not the case that it's uncompetitive

because a lot of these programs are remand programs, H-1, CH-47,

and they're all going back to the original manufacturer?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Right.  That's right.  But if you look at the --

 

Q:  How do you break out of that cycle?

 

ALDRIDGE:  You have to start thinking about that now,

that you'll break out of it maybe in 10 or 15 years from now.

 

Yeah, way in the back.

 

Q:  Yes, sir.  There have been about a dozen alternative

studies for the F-22.  Has something changed?  Is there some new

alternative to the F-22 that's being looked at or are they the

same old alternatives?

 

ALDRIDGE:  I'm not --

 

Q:  Remanufactured F-15s, beefed up --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Those are not in the equation.   The only

thing that's in the equation today is how many are we going to

buy?  We have not thought about opening up alternatives of that

nature.

 

Q:  But I mean, the reason you're evaluating how many

you're going to buy -- is that capability being offset in some

way?  Is something else doing that job?  That's what I don't

understand.

 

ALDRIDGE:  No.  The situation is that the world changes.

(Laughs.)  We -- things happen, and we are taking a look at --

well, if we're going to spend our taxpayer dollars in the right

way, a year or two ago, there was a study done that said you

probably need -- more than a year or two ago; several years ago

-- you need 700 F-22s, because they we're going to replace the

F-15 on a one-to-one basis. Well, that number got changed --

"Well, we don't need that many."  The QDR [Quadrennial Defense

Review] of 1997 says we only need 331 or something of that

nature.  Now we're saying, well, now we've started the Joint

Strike Fighter.  It's got stealth capability, got some

air-to-air capability.  Do we need all 331?  And I -- you know,

what is the right number, given the new environment, given the

new priorities, given the fact that we've got a budget that

looks pretty good, in terms of its current projection, but is it

going to be the same as you go out in the future?

 

And we've started a lot of stuff that has a tendency to

have a huge bow-wave effect.  And are we spending our money,

given the fact that we -- right, given the fact that we may not

have the same amount of funding in four or five years from now.

So I think this is what's in the equation.  It's just, try to

recycle.

 

Yeah.  All the way in the back.

 

Q:  Mr. Secretary, a question on spectrum allocation:

There's been some criticism that it hasn't been considered

enough in developing new weapon systems.  Can you respond to

that?  And what's being done to give greater consideration to

it?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, spectrum is important, but fortunately,

this is outside of my area.  That belongs to John Stink.

 

Q:  But it's part of acquisition, though.  It's something you have to --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yes, we have to take into account the

spectrum process, but you know, how we do it -- I've really

said, that's John Stenbit's expertise.  I got enough to do, to

tell you honestly. (Laughs.)

 

Yeah, right here.

 

Q:  You mentioned tankers before.  And as you know,

there's been concerns raised in Congress about the leasing of

tankers, as opposed to direct purchase.  Can you talk about what

benefit you see in some cases of the leasing versus direct

purchasing and if the cost of the lease field exceeds that of

the direct purchase?  You know, in your analysis, would you mix

the tanker deal?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, leasing will always exceed the

purchase, because -- if you've ever leased a car, you know the

answer to this question.  If we're going to have a tanker, and

it's going to last, you know, 30 years, it is much better for us

to go buy it than it is to lease it.  But what the advantage is

essentially what happens in any corporation; it's called cash

flow.  We can get by with a lot less money for leasing today

than we would if we went out and purchased it. And what happens

is that after a period of 14 -- 12, 14 years, the lease cost

will start to exceed -- will certainly start to exceed what you

would've paid for the same airplane.  But you can get by and buy

that capability much sooner.  You can get it in a few years, and

without a huge amount of investment.  And what the Air Force has

to do is trade those two things off.  They have cash flow

problems and other things.  And of course then the other issue

that we have to address is Congress says then after a period of

lease, you have to give them back to the contractor.  Well,

there's not a whole lot of commercial application for tankers at

this point, so why would you do that?  And why would -- why

would the company want to do that?  I think what they're hoping

for is that they'll have -- they'll get a lease and they'll

continue on for 20, 30 years, which is a good deal for the

company.  It's not such a good deal from a total point of view

for the military.

 

Yeah.

 

Q:  On the H-1 program, I believe you said that the

reason you're continuing is the alternatives would be more

costly.  Is that the only reason?

 

ALDRIDGE:  No.

 

Q:  And also, what alternatives would there be?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, there's two.  The H-1 has two versions.

One's the Huey version; the other's Cobra.  And what they're

doing is they're remanufacturing the back end to have those two

aircraft, through the engines and the rotors and tail rotors, to

be common.  So there's a great logistics benefit from having

commonality of the two approaches.

 

From a utility point of view, you could do the H-60s.

They're a little more expensive, but you could do that.  But

from an attack version, the only other option for attack is

Apache, which is, I think, twice as expansive as the Cobra.

 

So -- and then you look in -- put into the kitty that

if, "Well, if I do a utility version over here, and I do the

attack version, then I'm not going to get the same logistic

support and the economies of scale."  So if you put all those

together, it is better for us to go down the combined path.

 

And we did put in a new management system, a new systems

engineering capability at Bell for this program, and it looks

like that they've -- a whole new management structure as a

matter of fact. I think like 12 of their top people have been

replaced to make a --

 

Yeah.

 

Q:  Mr. Secretary, one of the reasons for going forward

with the DDX program and the CGX  program is that perhaps the

fleet as we know it in surface ships has not reached the end of

its survivability concept with current design.  Given that as a

given, how would you view the future of the aircraft carriers as

we know them?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, I think anybody who challenges the

value of the aircraft carrier has to go to Afghanistan and look

at what value it was.  I think the -- the Defense Science Board

just finished a study of the carrier, of the future of the

carrier.  I have not seen that yet.  In fact, I asked for them

to do that study for lots of the reasons you just --  you

mentioned.  Where is the carrier going?

 

But from the point of view of the kind of capabilities

you can get from air-delivered weapons off of the decks of the

carrier, it has to be pretty well demonstrated in Afghanistan.

 

Now, for the future, if we get the Joint Strike Fight

STOVL [Short Take-Off & Vertical Landing] version works well,

maybe the future carrier doesn't have a wire.  And any

large-deck carrier becomes essentially an aircraft-deliverable

system.

 

So I have an open mind about the future of the carrier.

I think there is value to it, but we have to put all that into,

you know, how long it takes, how much it costs, what are our

alternatives, and so forth.  So right there, I don't have a real

answer.

 

Yeah?

 

Q:  A quick follow-up.  The survivability aspect of it.

I mean, will it carry a battle group, as you see it, protect a

carrier into the short-term future, as you see the threat?

 

ALDRIDGE:  I believe that's the case.  Again, you have

to figure out what's the threat you're trying to think about,

but the getting into littoral areas, the role of ballistic

missiles and high- speed cruise missiles, but the studies I've

seen of aircraft carrier survivability really give it a very

high -- high case.

 

Yeah?

 

Q:  Sir, earlier on the Osprey you said there had been a

lot of concern about hiding of some test results.  Do you think

that the companies held back test results from the Defense

Department, or what -- what are you saying?

 

ALDRIDGE:  What I was talking about is things -- I

wasn't here, so I'm reading what I know about it more in the

press, that there were those in the Marine Corps who suppressed

some of the data about reliability and safety because it didn't

make the airplane look good.  And that's what I was speaking of

--

 

Q:  The guys at the squadron?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yeah.  In fact, you know, they placed their

careers at risk because they wanted to show the airplane to be

performing better than it actually did.  So that was what I was

speaking of.

 

Q:  Can we ask you to step back from these questions for

half a minute and just -- how do you get a --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Why?  (Laughs.)

 

Q:  How do you get a weapon cancelled in this town?

 

ALDRIDGE:  It's very hard.

 

Q:  I mean, they're already at battle stations on the

Crusader. If you want to cancel "weapon X," do you have any

magic bullets?  I mean, we've had two secretaries of Defense

that tried to cancel the V- 22; they got rolled.  Is there any

new technique you've got in mind to get this thing cancelled?

(Scattered laughter.)

 

ALDRIDGE:  It is the hardest thing to do, to take a

weapon out of a program -- out of the budget.  It is just so

easy to put one in.  I could have just as easily tell the

Missile Defense Agency, "Go do a new Navy Area."  Nobody would

have questioned that one second. And I would -- we would be

spending hundreds of millions of dollars and nobody would ever

have said a word.

 

And take one away?  Well, we did the Navy Area.  Jeez,

they thought I had, you know, killed somebody.  And I got a lot

-- and even restructuring a program, like SBIRS-Low; I mean, I

caught hell over that.  You can -- it's just hard, it really is.

 

Q:  How are you going to get it done?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, in Navy Area I did.  Nunn-McCurdy is a

good tool.  If a program is sick, it's going to run into a

Nunn-McCurdy problem, and so there's a tool available.  The tool

is available during the budget process, during the -- you know,

some of these -- in the DPG we could have written, "terminate

this and terminate that," and it would have happened.  But it is

very hard.

 

Q:  I just had a clarification and a question.  The

clarification is on the F-22.  You said you were informed of the

structural problem around December.  Was that before or after

the Defense Acquisition Board?    And then the question is, the

SBIRS-high, is the schedule slipped down?

 

ALDRIDGE:  Well, let me answer the easy -- yeah, the

schedule has been adjusted.  What we've done with SBIRS-high is

that we have a cost estimate that looks -- and independent

estimates have come in and said the schedule looks very

aggressive, so we've adjusted the cost and the schedule to be a

little more executable.  But I have let the Air Force say, if

they believe they can accelerate the schedule within the dollars

that are provided, they're authorized to do so.  Why not? I

mean, if we can get things up earlier, that's great.  But we

have put together what I believe is an executable program with a

schedule that is somewhat relaxed, higher probability of being

achieved; but if the program managers, which they say they feel

comfortable they may be able to move some of that up within the

dollars, they can do so.

 

Q:  Sir, the Block 4-A missile that went away along with

Navy Area that you've said would be --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Block 4.  It's the Block 4 missile, not the Block 4-A.

 

Q:  Okay.

 

ALDRIDGE:  It's an air defense capability.  It doesn't

have as good a kill probability as the Block 4-A would be, but

we think we can do some things to it to get the kill probability

up.  And if we can do that, it will absorb a lot of the

shorter-range capability that was lost.  There's a lot more work

to be done in this area to make sure that's going --

 

Q:  In addition to the extended AAW [air to air weapons]

mission, if you take that on as well.

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yes.  Yes.

 

Yeah, right here, the lady.

 

Q:  The Chinook.  What alternatives did you look at?

And what did you ask Boeing to change in the program?

 

ALDRIDGE:  For what?

 

Q:  For Chinook.

 

ALDRIDGE:  For CH-47?

 

Q:  Yeah.  I've got so many things running in my mind

about the Chinook.  One, we did the CAIG estimate for the cost.

Boeing's program description -- their management was pretty

good, so we didn't have much to do about that one.  The --

(pause) -- I think the main thing was the cost. We adjusted the

cost number to take the CAIG, CAIG estimate.  And that's what

brought the confidence that they could deliver the airplane.

And of course, we looked at the alternative, which was a

heavy-lift helicopter.  The only solution was the CH-53, which

is about two or three times more expensive than the Chinook.  So

the alternatives didn't look attractive. The program, basically

we need a heavy-lift helicopter.  And as long as the costs now

would come under control, I was pretty confident that Boeing

that was going to bring in -- the management schemes they've got

at Boeing looked pretty good to me.

 

Yes, right here.

 

Q:  You referred to earlier about the battlefield of the

future.  Can you just talk in general about the role of UAVs on

that battlefield, and then in particular about the specific

programs in the services for UAVs?  How are they going?  And how

much money do you expect that --

 

ALDRIDGE:  UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] are getting a

lot of attention.  In Afghanistan they're pretty much

battle-proven now.  Some of those who were skeptical about the

value of UAVs have gone away.  The services have a wide variety

of UAVs, from the Army's Shadow to the Predator, the Global

Hawk.  DARPA has two programs underway, one for the Air Force

and one for the Navy, new UCAVs [unmanned combat aerial

vehicles].  DARPA also has some work going in micro-UAVs.  I

mean, everybody's got a UAV concept now going.  The Navy at one

time had a UAV helicopter called Fire Scout, I believe. That was

terminated.  But there are new technologies going.  In fact, one

of the things that looks very attractive is this new Canard

roto-wing concept that the Navy has for a vertical takeoff and

lift.   But once it gets rolling, it actually goes jet speed.

So it has speed and vertical takeoff and landing.  It's very

attractive as a potential UAV candidate.

 

I went to the Singapore Air Show as a guest of the

Singapore government and looked at the displays at all these

foreign countries. Everybody has a UAV.  (Laughs.)  Everybody.

 

Q:  As far as the -- (inaudible) -- ramping up on the UAVs across the board --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yes that's the -- we're accelerating Predator

and Global Hawk, making sure Global Hawk has improved power and

sensors. Basically, Global Hawk's going to replace the U-2.  One

day, that'll be about the same capability.

 

Q:  And finally, on UCAVs, Senator Warner a couple of

years back talked about a third of combat aircraft can be

replaced with UCAVs.  I mean, do you think that's a possibility

over the next decade and a half?  Or is that --

 

ALDRIDGE:  I don't know if a third is the right number,

but one could certainly imagine the tac-air [tactical air]

support to a theater being consisting of F-22s and air cover,

Joint Strike Fighters going in and going after mobile targets

and UAVs going together.  And in fact, in Aviation Week, we --

there's a thing about the French having the back-seater of one

of their aircraft controlling four UAVs in kind of a swarm.

We're looking at the same thing as a possibility.  So it makes

sense.

 

Yeah, Tony.

 

Q:  (Off mike) -- policy, can I --

 

ALDRIDGE:  What is it?

 

Q:  A profit policy.

 

ALDRIDGE:  Profit policy.

 

Q:  You spoke a number of times about the need to make

certain profit rates here comparable to the commercial sector.

Do you have anything in the works right now to actually convert

your view to a --

 

ALDRIDGE:  Right.  Yes, there's work in view, and I

don't know -- one of these days, I'll find out where it -- I'll

tell you about where it is.  I just -- I get swamped with other

things, and that tends to get a little bit working in the staff,

and they don't tell me about it.  Most times I get these issues

of Crusader and things of that nature.

 

Q:  But it is going to be --

 

ALDRIDGE:  It is in the works.  It's what's called

"weighted guidelines."  And one of the things we want to look at

the weighted guidelines is how does one calculate the fees for

various kinds of contracts?  And one of the things I want to

remove out of that is that facilities is part of the equation

that allows companies to make high profitability -- make profit,

and so that's an incentive for them not to get rid of excess

capacity, because they get fee on top of their -- and somehow

the weight's wrong.  And we need to make sure we do that right.

 

Let me go back just -- here, right here.  Yeah.

 

Q:  I just want to ask you a broader question, about

transformation, because I've heard Admiral Cebrowski saying on

numerous occasions that military transformation, it means

preparing for warfare in the information age.  And I'm wondering

if that means -- in terms of acquisition, does that mean --

(inaudible) -- investment in the information technology and

telecommunications sector, I suppose, to the more traditional

industrial-base types of activities.

 

ALDRIDGE:  It does mean that, but I would say it's much,

much broader than that, as well.  I use this example too many

times:  A guy on a horseback with a GPS [global positioning

system] receiver calling in B-52s for close air support is kind

of a transformational thought, in my view.  And yet it was all

legacy systems.  But it was a different use of the systems that

we have rather than something new and different, new in

technology.  But I think it is -- it also is new in -- new

technology because it allows you to do things in a much more

effective way than you did in the past.

 

But transformation -- and I've used this many times --

is a journey.  We're never going to get there.  It's -- because

transformation today will be different than transformation of

tomorrow.  And so I think we have a -- kind of a -- I think

Admiral Cebrowski's view is -- he said that.  I think I've heard

him say it's much broader, and I agree with him, it's much

broader.

 

Yeah, right here.

 

Q:  On SBIRS-High, you may have had a different -- you

may use the same words, I'm just using different words -- it's

the same thing. Do you plan any kind of restrictions on

SBIRS-High now that you've certified it?  And are there any kind

of concerns, particularly to the HU or GEO payloads?

 

ALDRIDGE:  There are no restrictions from the point of

view that -- no.  We've certified to the four criteria.  We've

got a restructured program.  It's been priced.  It's going into

the Air Force budget with the new numbers, with the new

schedule.  They have to come back with an updated program plan

that puts all that together.  I've asked for a review in about

six months to see how well they're doing.  I'd like to see the

-- have the cost trends started to make any difference in

direction.  But as you know, in the space business, we've

transferred that responsibility from Milestone Decision

Authority to Mr. Teets as the undersecretary of the Air Force.

So since I had gone through the certification process, because I

am the only one who has been delegated that responsibility for

SBIRS-High, we're going to start moving some of the program day

to day activities over to Mr. Teets for that, and he'll have the

next one.

 

Yeah, right here.

 

Q:  Yeah.  The EA-6B replacement study is out, yet there

have been some talks -- like, the Air Force is saying that it's

a nice study, but it didn't go far enough, just talking about

aircraft replacement.  What is your feeling of that study?

 

ALDRIDGE:  They need to make a decision -- (laughs) --

rather than continue to study something.

 

There are some interesting things in there.  What we've

asked the Air Force and the Navy to do is get together and go

figure out a plan, because we're going to have to -- we can't

afford two different airplanes for the two services.  There's

going to be an integrated EA- 6B replacement of some type.  And

if we can get the Air Force and the Navy together to figure out

what that ought to be, that's the right answer.

 

Yeah, Ray.

 

Q:  Mr. Secretary, a common denominator in each of the

programs that you mentioned in the letter that you sent to the

Hill on Nunn- McCurdy was that you were going with the CAIG

estimate.

 

ALDRIDGE:  Yes.

 

Q:  Is that significant?  If so, why?

 

ALDRIDGE:  The CAIG estimates traditionally -- and I

have lots of years.  I -- back -- I worked for PA&E in 1967 when

we first started the CAIG -- usually within about 2 percent of

the actual cost of a program when it's finished.  The service

estimates are anywhere between 17 and 19 percent low.  I'd

rather go with a program that I have a little more confidence

in, even though it's not perfect.  And there will be some

changes to it.  In fact, the CAIG's been 2 percent low -- it

hasn't been high -- on the average.  And so I think it is better

to take an independent look where people who have data that goes

far beyond the individual program managers, they see all of

these programs of all the services, of all the -- and they have

a lot more data in which to make an assessment of what they

believe the cost is really going to be.  I feel more comfortable

taking that estimate than I do taking the service estimate,

although in some cases I've taken the service estimate when I

thought it was better.  In fact, that's what we did with the

F-22.  We just bought the number of airplanes we could buy at

the CAIG number.

 

So I felt if I had a -- if I want to tell somebody that

I have properly priced the program, I have a tool, and I'm going

to use that tool.  It's called CAIG.  And if I feel that there's

a huge difference in the cost between a service and the CAIG, I

want to use the CAIG, because we are more likely to come in at

that cost.  And the combination that -- I've made this speech

before -- the combination of evolutionary spiral development

that gets something to the field quicker, with less risk,

coupled with properly pricing programs -- I can't think of any

better way to maintain stability in a program than those two

events.

 

STAFF:  Thank you.

 

ALDRIDGE:  Okay.

 

Q:  Thank you very much, Mr. Secretary.

 

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